The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018.
How has battery quality changed over the past 30 years?
As volumes increased, battery costs plummeted and energy density — a key metric of a battery's quality — rose steadily. Over the past 30 years, battery costs have fallen by a dramatic 99 percent; meanwhile, the density of top-tier cells has risen fivefold.
Are lithium-ion battery prices falling?
The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That's 41 times less. What's promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
The improvements we've seen in battery technologies are not limited to lower costs. As Ziegler and Trancik show, the energy density of cells has also been increasing. Energy density measures the amount of electrical energy you can store in a liter (or unit) of battery. In 1991 you could only get 200 watt-hours (Wh) of capacity per liter of battery.
Are lithium ion batteries going down?
Lithium-ion batteries are the most commonly used. Lithium-ion battery cells have also seen an impressive price reduction. Since 1991, prices have fallen by around 97%. Prices fall by an average of 19% for every doubling of capacity. Even more promising is that this rate of reduction does not yet appear to be slowing down.
Why are battery costs falling?
Over the past 30 years, battery costs have fallen by a dramatic 99 percent; meanwhile, the density of top-tier cells has risen fivefold. As is the case for many modular technologies, the more batteries we deploy, the cheaper they get, which in turn fuels more deployment. For every doubling of deployment, battery costs have fallen by 19 percent.
Battery sales are growing exponentially up classic S-curves that characterize the growth of disruptive new technologies. For thirty years, sales have been doubling every two to three years, enjoying a 33 percent average growth rate. In the past decade, as electric cars have taken off, it has been closer to 40 percent.